What’s up, Otaku Bettors!
While digging through roulette info lately, I noticed a lot of sites mixing up “hit rate (win rate)” and “consecutive win/loss probability.”
A lot of people probably didn’t realize they were different, right?!
I was one of them — but now that I’ve done my homework, I want to share what I learned with all you Otaku Bettors, so I’m putting it all here.
Though honestly… roulette is just luck, so you don’t need to overthink it…
Roulette Is a Game of Independent Events
Roulette is a game of independent events.
Independent events means that the outcome of one event has no influence on the outcome of another.
In roulette, each spin is completely independent — the result of the previous spin has absolutely no effect on the next spin — making it a game of pure independent events.
In probabilistic terms, the thinking that “red came up last time, so black is due next” is pure superstition…
Single-Game Hit Rate (Win Rate)
In roulette, the probability of winning a single game (one spin) is called the “hit rate (win rate).”
For example, betting on a specific number in European Roulette (37 numbers, 0 through 36) gives that number a 1/37 (2.7%) chance of coming up.
This is the per-game hit rate (win rate) — and it’s different from consecutive win probability.
Consecutive Win Probability
Let’s say the hit rate on the first game is 10.81% (4/37) and 21.62% (8/37) on the second.
In that case, to win two in a row, you need to win the first game and then win the second game too.
With independent events, even if you win the first game, that has no influence on the second — so the probability of winning the second game is calculated on its own.
By multiplying these two independent hit rates together, you can find the probability of winning two in a row.
Calculating Consecutive Win Probability
When calculating consecutive win probability, since each spin is independent, you multiply the win rates for each round together.
This gives you the probability of winning consecutively.
For example: if you keep spinning roulette with a bet that has a 94.59% hit rate (35/37), the hit rate itself doesn’t change.
1st Spin: Hit rate 94.59% (0.9459)
2nd Spin: Hit rate 94.59% (0.9459)
But the probability of winning consecutively does change.
1 Win (94.59%)
0.9459
2 Consecutive Wins (89.47%)
0.9459×0.9459=0.8947
That covers consecutive win probability — but when calculating consecutive loss probability, the formula changes slightly.
Calculating Consecutive Loss Probability
When calculating loss rate, you start the formula with “1-.”
For example, with a game like the Manchurian Roulette Strategy, where the betting range expands until you win, if you want to find the probability of losing 5 times in a row:
First, calculate the loss rate for each game.
1 Corner (4/37) hit rate is 10.81% (0.1081)
Loss rate: 1-0.1081=0.8919
2 Corners (8/37) hit rate is 21.62% (0.2162)
Loss rate: 1-0.2162=0.7838
3 Corners (12/37) hit rate is 32.43% (0.3243)
Loss rate: 1-0.3243=0.6757
4 Corners (16/37) hit rate is 43.24% (0.4324)
Loss rate: 1-0.4324=0.5676
5 Corners (20/37) hit rate is 54.05% (0.5405)
Loss rate: 1-0.5405=0.4595
From here, just multiply them out.
The calculation for the probability of 5 consecutive losses with the Manchurian Roulette Strategy is as follows.
1 Loss (89.19%)
0.8919
2 Consecutive Losses (69.91%)
0.8919×0.7838=0.6991
3 Consecutive Losses (47.24%)
0.8919×0.7838×0.6757=0.4724
4 Consecutive Losses (26.81%)
0.8919×0.7838×0.6757×0.5676=0.2681
5 Consecutive Losses (12.32%)
0.8919×0.7838×0.6757×0.5676×0.4595=0.1232
Don’t Overthink It
You might be wondering: “Why do we multiply the hit rates?” or “What’s the point of subtracting 1…” — just file it under “that’s how it works” and move on.
Honestly — no matter how deep you dig into the data, losers lose and winners win — that’s the world of roulette.